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Putin, Trump, and What Comes After the Ukraine War

Vladimir Kara-Murza: A Russian Opposition Leader’s Journey from Prison to Freedom

Surreal Freedom

On April 11, 2022, just weeks after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Kara-Murza, a writer and activist, was arrested outside his home in Moscow. He was charged with "spreading deliberately false information," a Kremlin-speak for criticizing the war in Ukraine. A year later, he was sentenced to 25 years in prison, then transferred to a remote Siberian penal colony, where he was held in an isolation cell.

Kara-Murza, who had already survived two earlier poisonings linked to Russia’s security services, continued writing in prison, including regular columns for the Washington Post, for which he was awarded the Pulitzer Prize in Commentary. He expected to die in prison, as his fellow dissident Alexei Navalny did earlier this year.

Miracle Release

Then, in August 2024, Kara-Murza found himself suddenly released and expelled from Russia as part of a massive international prisoner exchange that also freed American journalist Evan Gershkovich.

The Interview

Last week, Kara-Murza sat down with Vox for an extended interview on the sidelines of the Halifax International Security Forum, where he received the event’s John McCain Prize for Leadership. The award was particularly meaningful for Kara-Murza, who was a friend of the late Arizona senator and a pallbearer at his funeral.

In the interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Kara-Murza discussed the "surreal" experience of sudden freedom, the lessons of history for the war in Ukraine, and why Vladimir Putin’s regime might not be as stable as it seems.

On the Experience of Freedom

When this conference was happening a year ago, you were still in prison. Is the experience of being out still strange for you?

It is completely surreal. For the last three months, I’ve felt as if I’m watching some kind of a film. Frankly, it’s a very good film, but it does not feel real. I was absolutely convinced that I was going to die in that Siberian prison. And what happened on August 1, I can only describe it as a miracle, because the last time that there was an international prisoner exchange that actually freed Russian political prisoners — not just Western citizens held in Russian jails, but Russian political prisoners — was in October 1986.

On the Threat to Safety

Given what’s happened to a number of prominent critics of the Russian government abroad, do you still feel like there’s some threat to your safety, even outside of Russia?

When our plane was landing in Ankara on the day of the exchange, one of the FSB officers who was accompanying us turned to Ilya Yashin and to me, and said, "Don’t think that you guys will be safe over there. Krasikov can come for you too." [Vadim Krasikov is the Russian security service hitman, released as part of the prisoner exchange, who had been serving a life sentence in Germany for the assassination of a former Chechen rebel in Berlin.]

On the Situation in Russia

Looking at the number of Russian casualties that are coming back from Ukraine, why doesn’t this seem to have more of an impact on Russian society? And how long can this situation be sustainable for the Russian government?

It is made aware of all the horrendous crimes that have been committed in its name by the previous regime. So the archives are opened, and these crimes are made public. The people responsible for these crimes are made accountable. The institutions that have been committing these crimes, like the secret services, are dismantled, and so on. None of this happened in Russia in the ’90s. And we know that when evil is not publicly reflected on and publicly condemned, it’s going to come back. And this is exactly what we saw with a former KGB officer coming to power in Russia. We must never make this mistake again. So this is our homework for the Russian opposition, for the Russian democratic forces.

On the Future of Russia

To go back to the question of Ukrainians and Russians, it seems like what you’re proposing will require the West to take a leap of faith on Russia after the war. Here at this conference, we’ve heard a lot of slogans like "Make Russia Small Again," and it’s not unusual to hear people talk about Russia needing to be demilitarized or carved up.

All this talk that you just referenced, that’s an amazing gift to Putin’s propaganda, because all he needs to do is just amplify those voices and tell people, "All these people in the West, they’re so Russophobic. They hate all Russians. Their quarrel is not with me, with Putin, they hate all of you." And frankly, it is really damaging, really shortsighted, and really counterproductive to hear.

On the US-Russia Relationship

So there’s now been years of discussions, analysis, and legal proceedings regarding the relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. As this new American administration comes in, what do you think are kind of the best- and worst-case scenarios? What are your expectations for how this administration will handle Russia?

I think a character trait that we definitely know about Mr. Trump is that he’s famously unpredictable, so I think that it’s anybody’s guess what the actual policy will be. To be honest, I was really heartened by the selection of the secretary of state. I’ve known Senator Marco Rubio for many years. I know he cares about the issues of democracy and human rights, and standing up to dictatorial regimes. He’s spent a lot of his Senate career on these issues. He has advocated on behalf of political prisoners in Russia, in Belarus, of course, in Venezuela, and Cuba.

On the Future of Democracy

A lot of Americans are worried now about the future of their own democracy. Polls show that it’s top of mind for a large number of voters. As someone who’s seen authoritarianism firsthand, do you think it’s reasonable for people in the US or other democracies to be worried about their countries remaining democracies?

Well, first of all, I do think it’s right to never be complacent about this, to never take things for granted. I think it was President Reagan who said that freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. That is unfortunately, absolutely true, and we all have to be vigilant about this. But you know, I’m an optimist about Russia, and I’m certainly an optimist about the United States.

You’ve had two-and-a-half centuries of democratic institutions and democratic traditions. That’s not going to suddenly be undone because of any single person in the space of four years. So I don’t share these alarmist sorts of views and predictions. But it’s right that people are concerned because we always have to stand guard and make sure that we protect these democratic institutions.

Conclusion

Kara-Murza’s story is a testament to the power of human resilience and the importance of standing up for one’s beliefs, even in the face of adversity. As he navigates his new role as a free man, he remains committed to speaking out against authoritarianism and promoting democracy around the world.

FAQs

Q: What is the current situation in Russia?
A: The situation in Russia is complex and ever-changing, with ongoing conflicts and human rights abuses.

Q: How can the West support Russia’s democratic forces?
A: The West can support Russia’s democratic forces by providing financial and political support, as well as promoting human rights and democracy around the world.

Q: What is the best-case scenario for the US-Russia relationship?
A: The best-case scenario for the US-Russia relationship is one of cooperation and diplomacy, with the two nations working together to address global challenges and promote peace and stability.

Q: What is the worst-case scenario for the US-Russia relationship?
A: The worst-case scenario for the US-Russia relationship is one of confrontation and conflict, with the two nations engaging in a new Cold War.

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